2012年欧盟口译实战:金融资本主义如何转型

　　金融资本主义如何转型?

　　Two further long-term developments help explain what has happened. The first is the revolution in financial economics, notably the discovery of options pricing by Myron Scholes and Fischer Black in the early 1970s, which provided the technical underpinning of today's vast options markets. The second is the success of central banks in creating a stable monetary background for the world economy and so also for the global financial system. "Fiat" (or government-created) money has now worked well for a quarter of a century, providing the monetary stability on which complex financial systems have always depended.

　　另外两个长期进展有助于解释所发生的一切。首先是金融经济学的革命，特别是迈伦•斯科尔斯(Myron Scholes)和费希尔•布莱克(Fischer Black)在上世纪 70 年代初设计出的期权定价模型，该模型成为如今庞大期权市场的技术基础。其次是各国央行在为全球经济、同时也是为全球金融体系创建一个稳定的货币体系方面取得的成功。法定货币(Fiat money，指政府创造的货币)如今已良好运转逾四分之一世纪，提供复杂金融体系一向依赖的货币体系稳定性。

　　Yet there is also a shorter-term explanation for the explosive recent growth in finance: today's global savings and liquidity gluts. Low interest rates and the accumulation of liquid assets, not least by central banks around the world, has fuelled financial engineering and leverage. How much of the recent growth of the financial system is due to these relatively short-term developments and how much to longer-term structural features will be known only when the easy conditions end, as they will.

　　解释金融资产近年的爆炸性增长，也有一个较为短期的理由：目前全球储蓄和流动性过剩。低利率和流动资产的累积(不仅仅是各国央行所持有的流动资产)刺激了金融创新和负债经营。我们只有等到这些宽松条件消失(这是肯定会发生的)以后，才能了解最近几年金融体系的发展在多大程度上源于这些相对短期的发展，又在多大程度上源于较长期的结构特征。

　　What then have been the consequences of this vast expansion in financial activity, much of it across international borders?

　　金融活动的这种大规模扩张(很多是在国际间发生的)带来了什么后果?

　　Among the results are that households can hold a wider array of assets and also borrow more easily, so smoothing out their consumption over lifetimes. Between 1994 and 2005, for example, the liabilities of UK households jumped from 108 per cent of GDP to 159 per cent. In the US, they soared from 92 per cent to 135 per cent. Even in conservative Italy, liabilities rose from 32 per cent to 59 per cent of GDP.

　　后果之一是，家庭能够持有更多种类的资产并能够更容易地获得贷款，这使他们能够分散安排一生中的消费。例如，1994年至2005年期间，英国家庭负债占GDP 的比例从108%升至 159%。在美国，这一比例从 92%升至 135%。即使在保守的意大利，负债占 GDP的比例也从32%升至59%。

　　Similarly, it is ever easier for companies to be taken over by, or merge with, other companies. The total value of global mergers and acquisitions in 2006 was $3,861bn, the highest figure on record, with 33,141 individual transactions. As recently as 1995, in contrast, the value of mergers and acquisitions was a mere $850bn, with just9, 251 deals.

　　同样，公司也更容易被其它公司收购，或与其合并。2006 年，全球并购交易总值为3.861 万亿美元，达到历史最高水平，共有3.3141 万项单独交易。相比之下，就在1995年，并购交易值仅为8500亿美元，交易数目仅为 9251项。

　　With the vast size of the new private equity funds and the scale of the bond financing arranged by the big banks, even the largest and most established companies are potentially for sale and break-up, unless they enjoy special protection. The market in control of companies, to which private equity is an active contributor, has greatly increased the power of owners (shareholders) over that of incumbent management.

　　由于新型私人股本基金规模巨大、大型银行安排的债券融资颇具规模，即使是最大、最知名的公司也有被出售或分拆的可能，除非它们得到了特殊保护。掌控公司的市场，已大幅增加了所有者(股东)相对于在任管理层的权力。私人股本是市场的积极贡献者。

　　The new financial capitalism represents the triumph of the trader in assets over the long-term producer. Hedge funds are perfect examples of the speculative trader and arbitrageur. Private equity funds are conglomerates that trade in companies, with a view to financial gain.

　　新金融资本主义象征着资产交易员相对于长期生产商的胜利。对冲基金就是投机交易员和套利者的完美例证。私人股本基金则是以获取财务利益为目的，从事公司买卖交易的综合企业集团。

　　In the same way, the new banking system is dominated by institutions that trade in assets rather than hold them for long periods on their own books.

　　同样，新型银行体系由从事资产买卖交易、而不是在账面上长期持有资产的机构所主宰。

　　With the orientation towards trading come explicit, rather than implicit, contracts and arms-length dealing rather than long-term relationships. So-called” relational contracts" are no longer worth the paper they are not written on. They are subject to the solvent of new opportunities for profit. It is no surprise, therefore, that the cross-holdings of postwar capitalism in Japan and the bank-dominated equity ownership of postwar Germany have both evaporated.

　　随着交易倾向的增强，出现了清晰而非含蓄的契约和独立交易，而非长期关系。所谓的“关系契约”，甚至还没有写着契约的纸张值钱。它们在新的商机面前难免烟消云散。因此，日本战后资本主义的交叉持股、以及战后德国股权为银行所主宰的现象都化为泡影，并不令人感到惊讶。

　　Moreover, the presence on share registers of large numbers of foreigners, who are fully prepared to exercise their rights of ownership and are unconstrained by national social and political bonds, has transformed the way companies operate: the successful shareholder revolt against the plans of Deutsche Borse's management for a takeover of the London Stock Exchange is an excellent example. Thus is global financial capital eroding the autonomy of national capital.

　　此外，在股东名册上出现了大量外国投资者——他们完全做好了行使所有权权利的准备，而且不受国家社会和政治方面的约束，这改变了公司的运营方式：股东成功阻止了德意志证交所(Deutsche Borse)管理层收购伦敦证交所(London Stock Exchange)，就是一个很好的例子。这就是侵蚀国家资本自主权的国际金融资本。

　　Another consequence has been the emergence of two dominant international financial centers: London and New York. It is no accident that these are located in English-speaking countries with a long history of financial capitalism. It is no accident either that Hong Kong, not Tokyo, is generally viewed as the leading international financial centre in Asia, even though Japan is the world's biggest creditor country. Hong Kong's legacy is British. The legal tradition and attitudes of English-speaking countries appear to be big assets in the development of financial centers.

　　另一个后果是出现了两大占据支配地位的国际金融中心：伦敦和纽约。它们都位于金融资本主义历史悠久的英语国家，这并非偶然。同样绝非偶然的是，尽管日本是全球最大的债权国，但通常被视为亚洲头号国际金融中心的却是香港，而不是东京。香港的传统来自于英国。英语国家的法律传统和观念，似乎是金融中心发展的重要资产。

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